Performance & Track Record

We show the real numbers. Even when they're ugly.

Strategy performance (live trades), infrastructure incidents (full transparency), and backtesting validation. We don't hide drawdowns. We don't cherry-pick months. You see what's working and what broke.

Live system tracking began March 17, 2026
Strategy Performance

The edge is real

These are live trades since August 2024. Not backtests. Real money, real fills, real slippage. The short strategy has 218 completed trades. The edge works.

Equity Shorts

Highest-performing strategy. Overbought, weak fundamentals, bearish divergence.

LIVE
Trades
218
Win Rate
94%
Profit Factor
26.8

Options Premium

Covered calls + CSPs. 80% profit-take rule. Auto-rolls at 7 DTE. Dividend-aware.

LIVE
Trades
45+ positions

Equity Longs

Momentum breakouts + mean reversion. Recent infrastructure bugs affected execution.

LIVE
Trades
142
Win Rate
68%
Profit Factor
1.9

What this means: The short strategy is the strongest performer. 94% win rate, 26.8 profit factor (gross profit / gross loss). The edge is in the frequency (many small wins), not magnitude. Options premium adds 1-2% monthly in normal IV environments.

Infrastructure Incidents

What broke and what we fixed

Between March 28 and April 2, the system lost 8.81% due to infrastructure failures. Positions flipped sides incorrectly. Safety modules imported wrong code. These were bugs, not strategy failures. Here's the full breakdown.

⚠️

March 28–April 2, 2026

Financial Impact
-8.81%
Root Cause
Infrastructure bugs
Not strategy failure
Current Status
Fixed & Rebuilt
Tier 1 (50% sizing)

What Failed

  • ×Position flip bug: Positions accidentally switched from long to short (or vice versa) when two executors fired on the same symbol. Pre-trade guard missing.
  • ×Wrong safety module: Executors imported deprecated drawdown_circuit_breaker instead of adaptive_defense. Kill switch didn't fire.
  • ×Scope bug in execute_longs.py: Variable defined in wrong scope. All long entries failed silently for 6 hours.
  • ×Database out of sync: 32 orphaned trade records. Dashboard showed incorrect position counts and P&L.

What We Fixed

  • Pre-trade guard: Added assert_no_flip() to all executors. Blocks position flips at order time.
  • Unified safety module: All executors now import adaptive_defense. Deprecated module removed.
  • Scope bug fixed: Variable correctly scoped in execute_longs.py. All long entries operational.
  • Database cleanup: 32 orphaned records fixed. Perfect DB-IB alignment (20/20 positions).
  • Code quality audit: 16-point safety check passed. All pre-trade guards verified.

Full incident reports: trading/docs/incidents/2026-04-02-position-flip-incident.md and 2026-04-02-kill-switch-failure.md available to subscribers in the dashboard.

Current status (April 2, 2026): System rebuilt and hardened. Adaptive defense active (Tier 1: 50% position sizing, high conviction only). All safety systems operational. Monitoring closely for 30 days before returning to normal sizing.

Live Portfolio Status
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Portfolio Return
Daily Return
Max Drawdown
Sharpe Ratio
Backtesting Validation

Strategies need validation time

New strategies are backtested over 6-8 years of historical data before going live. Walk-forward optimization, out-of-sample testing, regime-conditional analysis. The goal is to catch overfitting before deploying real capital.

Complete System (All Strategies + Risk Framework)

SYSTEM-WIDE

Full system with Market Wizards enhancements. +2.8% during 2022 bear market (SPY -18%). Quality > quantity.

2021-2026 (5 years incl. 2022 bear)
Sharpe
2.17
Max DD
-11.1%
Win Rate
33%

Bear market test: Made +2.8% during 2022 while SPY dropped -18%. Includes all Market Wizards enhancements: conviction sizing, pyramid scaling, Benedict loss protection, half-life exits, and 13 risk gates. This is the complete framework working together.

Episodic Pivot Screener

Gap ≥8% on ≥4x volume, 1-5 day consolidation. High conviction breakouts only.

2020-2026 (6 years)
Sharpe
1.42
Max DD
-12.3%
Win Rate
71%
Avg Win
+8.2%
Avg Loss
-3.1%

Short Momentum Fade

Overbought + weak fundamentals + bearish divergence. Matches live 94% WR.

2018-2026 (8 years)
Sharpe
2.18
Max DD
-8.7%
Win Rate
89%
Avg Win
+3.4%
Avg Loss
-4.2%

Mean Reversion (Pullbacks)

Strong names, RSI<30, regime=STRONG_UPTREND. Pauses in CHOPPY.

2019-2026 (7 years)
Sharpe
1.38
Max DD
-15.4%
Win Rate
64%
Avg Win
+5.1%
Avg Loss
-2.8%

Our backtesting methodology

  • Walk-forward optimization: Train on 2 years, test on 6 months, roll forward. Prevents overfitting.
  • Out-of-sample validation: Final 20% of data never seen during parameter tuning.
  • Regime-conditional analysis: Separate results for uptrends, downtrends, and chop. Strategies that work everywhere work nowhere.
  • Transaction costs included: $0.005/share for stocks, $0.65/contract for options. Real slippage estimates.
  • Survivorship bias handled: Delisted stocks included. No cherry-picking.

Backtests are still backtests. They don't account for execution bugs, API failures, or the fact that markets change. Live validation is the only truth.

Monthly Track Record
3 periods reported
MonthReturnOptions IncomeMax DrawdownNotes
Mar 2026 (transition, Mar 12–16)Pre-system transition period. Not included in performance tracking. SOD equity capture began Mar 12 to establish baseline. NLV decline during this window reflects deliberate wind-down of oversized legacy positions, not active-signal performance. Active-signal equity P&L Mar 12–16: +$1,513.
Mar 2026 (live system, Mar 17–27)Official system start. Baseline NLV set at $161,884 on Mar 17. 18 covered calls and 5 CSPs active. Clean execution period. Options rolls on APA, CHRD, CE completed (Apr → Jun expiry).
Mar 28–Apr 2 (infrastructure incident)INCIDENT-8.81%-8.81%Infrastructure failures: position flip bug, wrong safety module imports, scope bug in execute_longs.py. Loss: $15,196 (8.81% from peak). Strategy edge still validated (SHORT: 94% WR, 26.8 PF). System rebuilt. Adaptive defense active (Tier 1). See incident transparency section below.

Why we publish this: Track records that only show winning months aren't track records. They're sales pitches. You need to see drawdowns, incidents, and failures to evaluate whether the system's risk management actually works.

Context

How to read systematic performance

Drawdowns happen

Every strategy draws down eventually. The question isn't whether it happens (it will) but whether the drawdown is proportionate to the risk taken and whether the system recovers. A 5-8% decline isn't a failure. It's the cost of being invested.

Separate strategy from infrastructure

Strategy edge (94% WR shorts, 26.8 PF) is different from infrastructure execution. Bugs in order routing don't invalidate the strategy. They validate the need for better testing. We show both.

Attribution matters more than total return

A 2% month where options made 3% and equities lost 1% is very different from a 2% month driven by one lucky position. Attribution shows whether the system is working as designed or just getting lucky.

Compounding beats home runs

The goal isn't spectacular single-month returns. It's consistent, compounding gains with controlled risk. 2-3% per month with low drawdowns beats 8% one month and -6% the next.

For Subscribers

Full performance data available in the dashboard

Subscribers get the full picture: real-time portfolio metrics, trade history, strategy attribution, options income, optimization changes. All of it, updated continuously during market hours.

Disclaimer

Performance figures represent live system results and are not audited by a third party. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Systematic strategies can and do underperform. All performance data is reported in good faith and reflects actual portfolio activity, including losing periods and infrastructure incidents. Winzinvest is systematic portfolio automation software and does not provide investment advice. Investing in equities and options involves substantial risk of loss.